Figuring Out the Best Flops to Bluff On with Flopzilla Pro
In this episode, I give you the number 1 lesson I've learned from years of using Flopzilla Pro and how you can use this software to improve your flop play.
Listen to the podcast as you follow along below:
The #1 Lesson I've Learned from Flopzilla Pro
I've been using Flopzilla and the newest incarnation Flopzilla Pro for at least 5 years now and absolutely love the program! It’s the best equity analysis and hand reading software.
Now I've been using it for so long, but I can actually tell you the most important lesson I’ve learned:
No matter how tight your range is, it misses the flop more often than it hits the flop.
Th 20% open-raising range above (a common cutoff range) hits top pair or better and the open-ended straight draw or better only 34.5% of the time.
Quiz: If it hits 34.5% of the time, how often does it miss?
You guessed it, about 65% of the time. Almost 2 out of every 3 flops!
This is how often you’re NOT going to hit top pair or better and NOT hit the OESD nor the FD.
So, because this happens so often, why do we have this negative attitude when it happens? “Dang it, I missed the flop again!”
We shouldn't be bummed out like this for something that happens 2 out of every 3 flops.
Here’s a better attitude to have:
“Okay, the flop came out and I missed. My opponent probably missed it as well. How can a bluff them off the hand?” Or, “Is this a good board to bluff on?”
If you miss this often, how often do they miss?
Imagine you open-raised in the cutoff with the 20% range, and your opponent called in the BB with the 30% range above.
They only hit the flop 29% of the time. Awesome! That means a whopping 71% of the time, they miss the best hands on the flop.
Sure, they might be a fish who sticks around with gutshots and 2nd/3rd pair hands, but it’s great to know they DON’T hit great strength 71% of the time.
This is a good opportunity to bluff so approaching the flop with a bluffing attitude is better than a “drat, I missed” attitude.
You want have a positive, can-do, aggressive, “ go get ’em, tiger” of attitude.
Quick Quiz – Feel Free to Use Flopzilla Pro
You open-raised in the cutoff with the 20% range above. The BB called with the 30% range above.
Assume you missed the flop (maybe you held 33).
Now, which is the best flop for you to bluff on?
You probably guessed it, it’s the TT5 flop.
As you can see from the screenshots above, a whopping 75% of the 30% calling range misses on TT5.
Examine to Discover WHY?
This isn’t where you analysis ends.
You must now analyze each range and board interaction and answer the question:
“Why does it interact so well or poorly?”
Why do you think the 30% calling range interacts so well (hits 50%) on the 6s7s8s?
- The good number of off-suit hands holding a single spade, so there are tons of FD possibilities.
- The 678 are all connected, and with all the middle pairs and suited-connectors and suited-gappers, the range hits loads of strong made hands (2pair, sets, straights and flushes) and great pair+draw hands.
On the A92, why does this hit 39.5%?
- They have every Ace other than AA and AK in their range, so loads of TP or better 2pair hands.
- There aren’t any draws, but with so many Aces, that’s the key.
- The good news here is that almost any non-Ace hand will fold on this Ace-high and dry board.
Why is TT5 such a great board to bluff on?
- The be the kind of player that recognizes the “hard-to-hit” nature of the board, so they might stick around on the flop. But many of those players will fold to a double-barrel.
The more of this analysis you do, the answering of “why did it miss?” is going to help you become a better post-flop bluffer in the all-to-frequent situation of missing the flop.
You can do this work randomly with ranges and boards, or go through your database and find actual hands that you want to analyze to figure out the best plays to make.
My new Flopzilla Pro Course is available! Here’s a sample video with an action step for you to take to build your range and board interaction skills:
Watch the video and follow along with Flopzilla Pro as you watch. Then, do the action step afterwards!
Turn yourself into a better Flopzilla Pro learner!
You can do this work with a free equity calculator like Equilab. Just enter in 2 ranges and the board. Pay attention to the changing equities once you enter the board and the range whose equity goes up has a better interaction.
Then, ask yourself, “Why?” to learn which boards are better to bluff on.
- How to Make Poker Easier and More Fun – The 3 Advantages - May 25, 2023
- Continuation Betting Fundamentals - May 4, 2023
- 20 Quick Tips Every Online Poker Player Needs to Know - April 28, 2023
Don’t Miss Out!
Get expert tips and strategies straight to your inbox each week!