Your poker results tell you how to win!

You’re going to figure out what you’ve been doing WRONG, so you can STOP doing those things. And you’re going to figure out what you’re doing RIGHT, so you can do MORE of it… ganbatte!

Watch this episode on YouTube:

Listen to episode #584 as you follow along below:

So, the first month of the new year just ended. How was it?

Was it better than December or November? Or maybe worse? For me, January > November:

Either way, I’m putting you on track for winning this next month and beyond.

We’re hitting this from two directions:

1. Looking at your hard numbers, your actual stats and win rates.
2. Looking at the mental game aspects, the things that led to those results.

Hard Numbers: A Winning and a Losing Month Results

The first step in this process is to take a look at the past month of January and compare it with a recent month, either December, November, or maybe all of last year.

Let’s look at my results for January. I had a very strong month: played 31 hours over 4,700 hands and had a solid win rate of +15bb/100 hands.

But, November was ugly…  50 hours, 6,500 hands and a -16bb/100 hands win rate.

So this is a perfect month-to-month, apples-to-apples comparison of your results.

Find Your Numbers

If you already have a tracker, awesome, fill it out right now with a recent positive month and a negative month.

If you need a tracker, or don’t know how to find your numbers, I’ve got you covered:

Follow along with this video and record your numbers:

Analyze Your Numbers

Now that you have your numbers, start analyzing.

The idea here is that we’re finding the things you’re doing that contributed to your + month, and the things you’re doing that contributed to your – month.

We’ll use mine as an example.

Focus #1: 3bet > Call PF 2bet

Top: Statistics   Bottom: Win Rates

In my good month (right column), I 3bet a little more often and more smartly (more on the mental game aspects below), and I earned way more when doing so. Plus, look at how much more profitable I am when 3betting than calling! So, because 3betting is much more profitable than calling, I must 3bet more often.

Actually, I want my 3betting % > Calling 2bets %.

To achieve that, I MUST replace calls with 3bets, both for value and bluffs.

The Plan:

Do More: Before every call, I’ll consider the value of 3betting. Find more +EV bluffs and value 3bets. If I call, it’s with a playable hand and also a plan to steal post-flop.

Stop: Passively calling in hopes of hitting a flop. I’m still guilty of this, I must admit.

Focus #2: River Calling Issue

Top: Statistics   Bottom: Win Rates

In my good month, I won 64% of the time when I called on the river (right column). This lead to a +1252bb/100 hands!

In my bad month, I only won 41%, leading to a -1,929bb/100 hands win rate. Dismal, I know.

And let me tell you, I was making bad calls. I knew I was beat, I would call. I couldn’t fold TP hands because I was trying to win back losses and I didn’t want to be bluffed. Terrible, I know.

The Plan

Do More: Be willing to fold and only call when I can name hands that I beat.

Stop: Don’t be sticky to any hand just because it’s “strong”. Don’t call in hopes he’s bluffing.

What’s Your Plan?

You need to figure out where you’re losing money and where you’re making money.

Do less of the losing stuff.

Do more of the winning stuff.

Mental Game Mistakes: November

Bad Month

When I look back at November, the “bad” month, I realize my weak mental game was a huge part of it.

First: Bad Attitude

• I was being aggro just to be aggro.
• Stealing, 3betting, cbetting, barreling, check-raising without solid logic.
• That never works long-term.

Second: Too Many Hours

I had a goal of 365 hours for the year, and in November I was behind. So, I tried to cram in volume.

Big mistake. I had too much on my plate with work, holidays, and life. Playing 50 hours wasn’t smart.

I should’ve studied more instead.

Third: Distractions

In November, I played distracted. Trying to fit in more playing meant I had to multi-task and play while:

• Answering emails.
• Planning podcasts.
• Editing videos.

I can’t play solid poker while distracted.

Fourth: Learning to Stream

I was streaming a lot in November, learning how to chat and play solid poker at the same time. My results suffered during the learning process, but I think I doing better now.

Mental Game Wins: January

#1: I focused on playing my A-game!

These 4 things contributed to my January A-game.

First: Distraction-Free

This made a huge difference:

• Decided poker time was poker time.
• Music turned down low.
• Phone on DND
• Desktop icons hidden and task bar turned off.

Second: Streaming Comfort

I learned how to play well while discussing strategy and interacting with chat. I’m not a master yet, but the increased comfort led to better reads and plays.

Third: Table Selection

I was quick to notice when tables went from fishy to sharky, and I left those sharky tables quickly.

I hunted for fish and it boosted my win rate immediately.

Speaking of fish and boosting my win rate…

Fourth: Bomb Pot Tables

Bomb pot tables on ACR are more fun and full of fish who make mistakes. So I played a ton of bomb pot games.

Plus, because it was more fun, I was enjoying poker more and this led to better focus and decisions. Plus, I allowed myself to fold marginal hands, even TP hands on the flop versus significant action and lots of player still to act.

My Plan for Coming Months

Do: Focus on the 4 things that worked well and put me in A-game mindset.

Do: Study bomb pots to improve my skills with them.

Stop: playing distracted, too many hours, playing with more important things to do and playing with an attitude.

“Never stray from the way.” – Miyamoto Musashi

That takes me to something I say, and my final thought…

Don’t Blame Luck

If you look at your bad month and think, “I was just unlucky,” stop.

That mindset doesn’t help you improve.

In November, I ran under expectations in all-in spots. So, I COULD boil my losses down to just luck. But, I still would’ve had a losing month at -3bb/100 hands. Yeah, I was making mistakes even if I was “unlucky” at times.

And look at this, in November I was lucky with flushes and sets, and just unlucky in straights:

In January, I ran normally, but I was actually super unlucky with sets and straights, but ran as expected with flushes:

How could I have been a winner with such unlucky made hands?

It’s because I was playing well, even when I didn’t hit my sets, straights and flushes.

So luck wasn’t the problem in November… my decisions were.

If you blame luck, you stop learning.

If you ignore luck and focus on your actions and mindset, you get better.

That’s how you win long-term.

Take Action

Today: Compare one good month to one bad month.

Figure out where you’re losing money and where you’re making money.

Do less of the losing stuff.

Do more of the winning stuff.

Ganbatte!