I want to help you learn from my huge mistaken 4bet bluff in this episode. This mistake cost me 36 big blinds.

Let’s get into episode #586 so you can learn from my mistake:

Action Is the Greatest Teacher

I send strategy emails to my Smart Poker Study newsletter every week.

One of those emails discussed a painful hand: A mistaken 4bet bluff that cost me 36bb’s.

Email: One Number Fooled Me (Don’t Let It Fool You)

“It’s good to learn from your mistakes. It’s better to learn from other people’s mistakes.” -Warren Buffett

Let me save you 36bb’s.

I recently made a terrible 4bet bluff, and the mistake had nothing to do with my hand. I held A♣4♣, a perfectly reasonable suited Ace to 4bet bluff with… in the right situation.

The problem was the situation.

Villain was 33/30 with a 10% 3bet. Looks LAGgy, right? That’s exactly what I thought.

But here’s what I failed to notice: That 10% was 1 out of 10.

Twenty-eight total hands, only one prior 3bet in the MP. That’s not a reliable stat, that’s a trap.

Mistake #1: I put too much weight on “high” percentages without respecting the sample sizes.

Mistake #2: I ignored the context. He 3bet from the BB to 13bb. Most players flat in the BB with 1bb already invested. Calling 2bb’s is easy. Sizing up to 13bb 📢 screams value! Normal 3bet bluffs are 9-12bb’s.

Mistake #3: I fixated on my initial LAG read instead of dissecting the information in front of me. His only previous 3bet was from late position, not the blinds. Completely different dynamic.

So I 4bet 36bb more to 39bb. Trying to send the message I’ve got the nuts. But I finally listened to what his actions were telling me when he 5bet shoved.

Easy fold, but an expensive lesson.

Here’s the Takeaway: Don’t play the number. Play the sample, the position, the sizing, and the story. A stat without context and analysis is dangerous.

Next time you consider 4bet bluffing over a 3bet, ask yourself:

• How many times has he actually done this?
• Does the position make sense for a bluff?
• Does the sizing align with value or a bluff?
• What 3betting hands can fold? Name ’em.

Slow down. Think it through. Let other people (like me 😉) donate the 36bb, and learn from their mistakes.

Listener Q&A: 4 Smart Questions (And What I Learned)

After sharing this costly 4bet bluff, two listeners asked great follow-up questions. Here are the four key questions, with my answers.

1. Was the 10% 3bet stat meaningful?

Short answer: No.

• It was 1 out of 10 opportunities

• That one 3bet came from MP, not the big blind

• Only 28 hands total

• No notes. No showdown history.

I relied on 33/30 and 10% without asking where those numbers came from. There was no evidence he 3bet light from the Big Blind.

2. Why did I think a 4bet would work?

Short answer: Hope, not logic.

• I saw a LAG stat line and assumed folds.

• I used A♣4♣ as a blocker (blocks AA and AK).

• I never estimated fold frequency.

• I did not ask, “What is he doing this with?”

Worst of all, I did not take my hand off the mouse before committing 36 big blinds. I teach that pause… and skipped it.

3. What’s the new default vs a large BB 3bet with little history?

Short answer: Slow down and assume strength.

• Hand off mouse.

• Ask, “What is he doing this with?”

• Check positional 3bet stats.

• Respect large sizing from the big blind.

With a small sample and a big 13bb 3bet, this is likely value-heavy. Against that range (JJ+ and AK), folding is best. If you ever 4bet bluff, you need real evidence of light 3bets.

4. How do you get better at spotting your own mistakes?

Short answer: Review with structure.

• At every street, list your options (fold, call, raise, sizing).

• Ask which option is most +EV.

• Put villain on a range before deciding.

• Study spots you’re unsure about.

• Practice the correction in future sessions.

In this hand, once I put him on a value-heavy range, the answer was clear: fold versus the 3bet.

Mistakes become lessons when you slow down, analyze your options, and turn the review into focused study and practice.