I want to help you profitably set mine with small pocket pairs.

We love seeing cheap flops with 22-88 and hitting a set, right? It’s the dream… easy call preflop, hit a set, stack ’em!

It’s a simple process. But, there’s a problem… too many players lose money when they set mine.

I’ll help you lose less when you miss your set, win more when you hit it, and even fold when your set is beat.

Listen to episode #587 as you follow along below:

The 20x Rule with Implied Odds

The most important concept in set mining: the 20x Rule.

You need 20 times the amount you’re calling in the effective stacks. So, if you’re calling 2bb, there has to be at least 40bb behind. If you’re calling 6bb, there has to be at least 120bb behind.

Why follow this rule?

You only flop a set about 1 in 9 times or 11%. That means 89% of the time you’ll miss the set. So, when you do hit, you need to win a pot big enough to cover all those missed flops.

Some coaches recommend 10x or 15x rule. However, I recommend a 20x rule because micro and low stakes players call just way too often in general and they look for any reason to call. Following the 20x Rule for set mining, and even calling with suited connectors, will help you avoid troublesome, unprofitable spots.

Hit a Set, Get Value

You flopped a set. Now you need to get paid. But don’t assume slowplaying is the best move.

On wet boards, bet, even if OOP. Don’t count on check-raising. You don’t want them to check-back and catch their flush or straight for free. Bet and charge them to continue.

On dry boards, you have flexibility. With no draws out there, you can afford to check and let them bet. Then you can check-call or check-raise accordingly. But if you’re IP, don’t check-back. Make at least a small bet to build the pot for larger turn and river value bets.

Sometimes they’re going to fold and you miss out on value. Oh, well. Never frown when you take it down.

Miss a Set, Get Out

This is where most players leak money.

The flop comes out… and no set.

Default play: fold and move on. You have a small pair and that’s not worth much.

Best case scenario, you hold 88 on 732. But if you call the flop cbet, you hate every A/K/Q/J/T and 9. You don’t even like a 4, 5, 6 or 7.

Maybe you hit a straight draw. Okay, you can call the math is right, like if they cbet only 1/5 pot. If not, get out.

Now, the only time I’ll stay in without a set is if I see a great steal opportunity. So I can raise their flop cbet, or call the flop to bet the turn when they check. But this requires that I know my opponent well and I exploit their tendencies.

If you know nothing and can’t devise a solid steal plan, fold when you miss your set.

Hit a Set, But Learn to Fold on Bad Runouts

The hardest lesson in set mining: sometimes, you have to fold a set.

Sets are strong, but not invincible.

When you flop a set, don’t start drooling over the pot you’re about to win. Put your opponent on a range and visualize it through the streets. If they would only make this river bet or raise with better than your set, get out.

So be careful on wet flops when the turn and/or the river connect. If your opponent bets big on the river 4-to-the-straight or the river 3-to-the-flush, watch out. The draws got there, and they’re repping it hard.

Folding a set is painful, but it’s part of winning poker.

Your job, no matter your hand’s strength, is to make the best decision. The money already in the pot is gone. The only question is whether putting in more is correct.

When the runout is ugly and your gut says you’re beat, trust it and fold.

Take Action

Use the 20x Rule this week before any set mining call. Maximize value when you hit, get out without a great reason to stay when you don’t.

Keep studying, keep improving, and I’ll see you next time.