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SPS PODCAST

How to Earn More Thin Value with Weak Pairs – Podcast #490

BY

Sky Matsuhashi

on May 24, 2024

I'll show you how to earn more thin value with your weaker flopped pairs versus fish.

Watch this video on YouTube (https://youtu.be/d9KwMcXRc38):

 

Or, listen to podcast episode #490 as you follow along below:

 

Winning Thin Value Example – 55

We took a Thin Value Line in this hand: Bet/Bet/Check-back

Preflop

We hold 55 on the BTN.

The CO fish open-limps. We know he is a fish because he is running 55/9 and he open-limped.

We iso-raise to 4bb to get him all to ourselves. Both blinds fold and the limper calls.

Flop

The pot is 9.4bb, and the flop is Td 8c 2d, making possible straight and flush draws. We hold 3rd pair with our 55. The fish checks, and we bet just ⅓ pot for 3bb, and he calls.

Turn

The pot on the turn is 15.4bb and an off-suit 3s hits, making the board T823 with two diamonds. The fish checks again and we bet 9bb, just about 60% pot. The fish calls.

River

The pot on the river is 33.4bb and the Kd hits, making the final board T823K with 3 diamonds. The fish checks and we check behind. He turns over J9o, for a flopped oesd that didn’t complete. We win the 33.4bb pot.

 

How to Earn More Thin Value

  1. Versus a fish.
  2. Have a pair ahead of common draws like fd, oesd and overcards.
  3. The board contains draw possibilities.
  4. Bet flop ~1/3 pot, bet turn >1/2 pot, check-back river.

If they fold flop or turn, yay! Never frown when you take it down.

 

Winning Thin Value Example – 77

Preflop

We open-raise to 2.6bb in the CO with 77. The BTN folds and the 80bb stacked Fish calls. The BB folds.

Flop

The pot is 6.2bb and the 8d 5c 3s hits. We hold 2nd pp with 77. The fish checks to us and we bet about ½ pot at 3bb and he calls.

Turn

The pot on the turn is 12.2bb and the 4d hits, making the board 8534 with two diamonds. The fish checks to us and because he has folded to a turn cbet in the past, we barrel a little bit smaller for only 5bb into the 12.2bb pot, and he calls.

River

The river pot is 22.2bb and it’s an off-suit 2, making the final board 85342. The fish checks and we check behind. He turns over the QdJd and our 2nd pair hand of 77 takes it down.

 

Sometimes thin value lines can backfire…

Losing Example – A8s

Preflop

We open the pot to 3bb with A8s in the MP. It’s folded to the BB who calls. He's a LAG 23/20 player.

Flop

The pot is 6.4bb and the flop is 8s 5d 3s. The BB checks to us and we bet 3bb with TP, he calls.

Turn

The pot is now 12.4bb and the 9h hits, making the board 8539 with two spades. He checks then calls our half pot bet at 6bb.

River

The pot on the river is 24.4bb and the Qc hits, making the final board a rainbow 8539Q. He checks to us and we check behind with our third pair. Villain turns over K9o and wins the pot with his second pair. He gave us value on the flop, but hit one of his overpairs on the turn.

 

What to watch out for

1. They call f/t with better hands sometimes. If the fish fires river, they want value. Fold.

2. They complete a draw, coming out firing on the turn or river. You're making thin value bets, KNOWING they can hold draws. When the draw completes and they lead river = strong hand. Fold.

 

Losing Example – Q9s

Preflop

We open-raise on the BTN with Q9s. The SB folds and the BB fish calls.

Flop

The pot is 4.5bb and the flop is 933r. We don't have a backdoor flush draw, but we do have top pair. He checks to us and we bet 3.2bb, and he calls. I don't like how big this bet is. We can drive out his overcards and backdoor draws. It's not bad if they fold, but we're restricting his range to mostly strong pairs now.

Turn

The turn pot is 10.9bb and the 7c hits, making the board 9337 with 2 clubs. He checks to us and we bet 6bb, and he calls.

River

The river pot is 22.9bb and the Qc hits, so the final board is 9337Q with 3 clubs. Our opponent comes out firing 32.7bb in the 22.9bb pot. We hold top 2p on the paired board with 3 clubs. We reluctantly fold our hand because we realize he's got our two pair beat on this board.

 

3. Bet, check turn = face river bluff. Before thinly value betting flop, plan to barrel most turns.

4. Versus a strong, aggro player, they can call/call/lead river to bluff you. This is why we target fish for thin value and we increase turn size to signal strength.

 

Take Action

Flop pair IP vs fish? Try thin value double-barrels

Filter in database for bet/bet/check lines and review 20 hands

Some worked; why?

Some didn't work; why?

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Sky Matsuhashi

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