I love surprises in life. That’s why I don’t watch movie trailers. Truly, I DON’T WATCH MOVIE TRAILERS. That might seem weird to most of you.  I simply decide to see a movie based on the actors/director/story/word of mouth, then go see it (or not).

I remember the two movies that sealed the deal for avoiding movie trailers: Fast & Furious 6 and Fate of the Furious. They ruined the surprises of the last big action scenes by putting them in the trailers!

Avoid Poker Surprises by Planning Ahead

Listen to this episode as you follow along below:

I also don’t read Yelp reviews on a new restaurant. I want to experience all things fresh, basically be surprised by it, without going into it with expectations.

However, I DON’T LIKE surprises at the poker tables. I view poker surprises as a sign that I didn’t plan the hand and failed to put as much thought into my decision as it warranted.

Check-raise Example Hand

Hand History details:

• Preflop, it’s folded to me and I open-raised to 3bb with KQo.
• It’s folded to Villain 2 in the SB who called and the BB folded. Villain 2 is a loose-passive Fish given his VPIP/PFR of 43/13, his short starting stack and his tendency to call preflop (28% of the time). LIVE player translation: he plays almost half of his preflop hands, and calls way more than he raises preflop.
• Heads up to the flop, and I hit a gutshot draw on the Ace-high board. Villain 2 folds to cbets 62% of the time, so I make a roughly ½ pot continuation bet bluff, expecting him to fold.
• Villain 2 check-raised 3x my bet!

Now, if this play surprised me, I didn’t do my job properly.

After continuation betting, the action goes back to my opponent. He would now have the option to fold, check-call or check-raise.

It’s my job to put at least a little bit of thought into what each play would mean before I make the initial flop continuation bet:

• A fold would mean he hit nothing and gave up. A lovely outcome when I just hold a gutshot draw.
• A check-call means he likely has a pair or draw.
• A check-raise on this board would probably be top pair or better, maybe even only 2 pair or better.

If his check-raise surprised me, my reaction could be, “Drat! What do I do now? Do I fold my gutshot? Reraise bluff him? Just fold and give up my equity?! This sucks.”

However, if I had put some thought into what each potential reaction says about his hand, I wouldn’t be surprised, and my play would be pretty obvious.

Think Ahead to Avoid Surprises

To help you avoid surprises and plan for the rest of the hand before you act, ask yourself this question:

“What hands would he action?”

This requires that you put some thought into his possible reactions to your action and his range at the time.

What hands would he fold?

• Given that his Fold to Flop Cbet is 62% (meaning he folds almost 2/3 of the time against continuation bets), he’s folding most of his weaker hands.
• Underpairs like 33 are folding, as are suited and off-suit hands that didn’t flop a pair nor draw (like 6c5c, Kd9c).
• Maybe even weak 3^rd pair hands with no re-draw could fold (like 7c6c, 9d7d).
• I bet he could even fold weak gutshot draws (like 9c8c).

What hands would he check-call?

• Since he’s folding most of the time, he probably only calls with decent pairs and good draws.
• Flush draws with any two-hearts would call, as would QJ or A4, or even Kh7c with back-door draws and a big kicker.

What hands would he check-raise?

• Passive players mostly just check-raise with very strong 2-pair or better hands, like AJ or 77.
• If you know a lot about your opponent, you may have seen him check-raise nut flush draws in the past, like KhTh or Kh9h. If so, you can put those in his check-raising range.
• Remember that you hold the Qh, so he can’t be check-raising with the 2^nd nut flush draw (not possible for him to hold QhTh here).

The Good News

Now, if you thought about all this before cbetting, and you faced his check-raise to 12bb’s, what’s your reaction to his reaction?

Fold, of course.

Sure, it’s a bummer missing out on your gutshot equity.

But here’s the good news; you planned for this. His check-raise wasn’t a surprise, but instead, it was him revealing the strength of his hand.

“Awesome! Thanks Villain 2 for letting me know I was crushed. I’m just going to fold and move on to the next hand and plan for future ways to exploit your fishy tendencies.”

Take Action

In your next play session, plan for your opponent’s reaction to your play before you make it.

Before an open-raise preflop:

• What will you do if anyone left to act 3bets?
• What will be your general post-flop plan in case you get a caller?

Before you cbet from out of position:

• What turn cards can you double-barrel if he calls?
• What hands would he raise with?

Before you value bet the river:

• What hands can he call and give you value?
• What hands would he raise you with, and can you call or re-raise for value?

Good luck planning for their actions and avoiding surprises.

Plan Ahead Video & Podcast

Watch me discuss planning for the future with the 6 example hands from podcast #428:

Listen to the audio podcast for this episode #428:

Upgraded Poker Decisions! Train Yourself to Plan for Future Streets

Watch this episode #516 on YouTube:

Or, listen on Spotify as you follow along below:

The Future! Tick Sheet

How to Use: Before you make any play on any street, gauge how your opponent is likely to respond. It could be on the same street or on the next street:

• Before open-raising on the BTN, how are the blinds likely to react? Fold, Call or Raise (3bet)? Make a tick mark next to their expected play, then make the play. Or, if you don’t like their likely reaction, make a different play.
• Before cbetting flop, how will the preflop caller likely react? Make a tick mark, then make your play.
• Before checking-back the turn, how will the out of position play act on the river? Check or come out firing? Make a tick mark, then make your play.

Be sure to consider all of your options. If I bet, will he Fold, Call or Raise? Which do I want  him to do? What size will get me what I want?

Surprises = Information. If you expected them to fold, but they raised, that tells you loads about their range of hands. Use this information to gauge how you should respond.

Example Hand #1

Hand Details:

• Before 3betting preflop, I thought the SB, BB and CO opener would likely fold. The SB and BB both cold called.
• On the flop, the SB donk bet 1bb, the BB raised to 10. Options:
  • Call. The pot would’ve been 60bb on the turn, and the BB would’ve shoved. I can’t call w/TPWK in this spot.
  • Raise. A raise would be with the goal of ending the hand if they were bluffing, or risking it all versus a flush draw. A raise would fold out all worse hands and only getting better hands to call.
  • Fold. Better than calling or raising, so I folded.

Take the QTs Quiz:

Example Hand #2

Hand Details:

• Preflop: Before I 3bet, I figured the open-raiser would fold. And if he didn’t, he was turn honest so I would barrel bluff him.
• Flop: I needed to barrel the turn, so I made a 1/3 pot cbet, expecting him to call.
• Turn: I bet > 50% pot to win the pot, and it worked as expected.

Example Hand #3

Hand Details:

• Preflop: Isolation raised the BTN limper to 4bb. Expected a call, so I didn’t want to risk too many chips with just a QJo.
• Flop: The nuts!!! Gotta get value while the getting’s good, so I cbet 1/2 pot expecting a call.
• Turn: Still the nuts! Let’s keep getting value, and the board got wetter. I figured a >1/2 pot cbet would get called, and he did.
• River: Yes, the nuts! I wanted him to raise, but expected a call. So, I made it 1/2 pot. Sizing it down from the turn would look weaker. He took the bait and raised. I came over the top, hoping he had a Jack or 6 for a straight he couldn’t fold. Alas, he wised up and folded.

Take Action

Use the Future! Tick Sheet over your next few sessions. Consider your options and how they’re likely to respond. Make the play that’s likely to lead to your desired results.

Get the Online Poker Hand Reading Workbook

Improve your future planning skills (and avoid surprises) by building your hand reading skills. The Online Poker Hand Reading Workbook is what you need! Thanks to these rad poker peeps who recently picked it up: Vili R, Ed D, Neil D, George C, Leslie F, Patrik A, Jeff T, John B, Ewan P, Paul E, Jim L, Zefirelli N, Mike J, Graeme W, Ian H, Andrea K, John H, Quincy W, Shokhrukh I, Juan C, Garett H, David T, Brian G, Paolo P, Dmytro A, Loc N, Martin B, Paul M, Keith P, Reto S and Massimiliano E.